April 22, 2020 - Perception Health, a leading provider of predictive analytics for the healthcare industry, released today a new service that offers projected numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths in each state.

Each projection depicts a large gray area representing a state's possible maximum and minimum number of cases / deaths in the future. A solid blue line shows the actual number of cases / deaths that have been reported and a dotted orange line projects the future numbers over time.

View the projections and related information.

"Models help us understand how different variables (population, density, demographics, social determinants of health, etc.) can affect the results," says J. Tod Fetherling, CEO of Perception Health and an industry veteran in health data analytics. "Our data scientists have worked long hours during the past few weeks to create reliable projections to help guide our customers and the communities they serve," says Fetherling.

The projections from Perception Health are based on previously reported cases, trending data, and estimates on the degree to which populations follow existing quarantine and social distancing recommendations.

"We constructed the model with three assumptions: (1) current social distancing and quarantine procedures are maintained; (2) hospitalization rates in the U.S. stay below maximum capacity, thus removing the possibility of a 'spike' in the data; and (3) data reporting is consistent," says Fetherling.

The COVID-19 projections are an extension of the company's CARE platform, which analyzes billions of de-identified medical claims records to help hospitals identify patients who are trending towards specific diseases. The algorithms are applied to a hospital's patient database to see which of their patients may be trending towards a particular diagnosis, so to encourage patients to get a screening for that disease.

"Our work is ultimately about saving lives and we are proud to partner with healthcare organizations in their work to serve their communities," says Fetherling. "As we gather daily data from state and local health agencies, we will continue to refine this model's projections to make it a valuable tool for our healthcare partners," Fetherling says.